Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat

If you’ve been following California real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing: the reality isn’t quite that straightforward.

In most places, prices aren’t flat at all, especially across our Central Valley housing markets.

What the Data Really Shows

While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020 to 2022, how much they've changed is going to be different everywhere, and that’s especially true in local California markets.

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If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly.

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The big takeaway here is that “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends vary depending on your local market conditions, whether that’s in the Central Valley, the coast, or Southern California.

One major factor driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:

“. . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t tell the full story, and it’s not what most California markets are actually feeling today.

And just in case you’re focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past five years, and even more in some California hot spots now seeing slight corrections. So, a modest drop in certain local pockets still puts most homeowners ahead when it comes to overall value.

Based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.

So, What’s Actually Important for You to Know?

If You’re Buying...
You need to know what’s happening in your specific local market because that’s going to influence everything, from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

In markets where prices are still inching up, waiting could mean paying more down the line.

In markets where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.

The bottom line? Knowing your Central Valley and California local housing trends puts you in the driver’s seat.

At Lend Mortgage Solutions, we specialize in trusted local mortgage loan originations throughout the Central Valley and across California. Our tailored loan programs are designed to meet your unique financial needs with transparency, integrity, and trust. These are values that have earned us the respect of clients, realtors, and businesses alike.

If You’re Selling...
You’ll want to understand local trends so you can price your home correctly and know what to expect during negotiations.

In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to sell.

But in markets where prices are softening, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes key.

The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need the expertise of a trusted local real estate professional to avoid mispricing, because homes priced right are still selling quickly.

The Real Story Is Local

National averages can highlight broad trends, and that’s helpful context. But when it comes to making decisions, you need a local California housing expert who understands what’s happening right here in your Central Valley community.

As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, is to partner with trusted local professionals.

At Lend Mortgage Solutions, we’re more than just loan officers; we’re your neighbors. We know the Central Valley market because we live and work here too. We take pride in providing highly trusted, transparent mortgage solutions that help you make confident financial decisions in any housing climate.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices “flat” may grab attention, but they’re not telling the full story, especially here in California.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what’s really happening in your local housing market?

If you want to understand exactly what prices are doing right here in the Central Valley and how to navigate it with confidence, connect with Lend Mortgage Solutions today. Your trusted, local mortgage experts are here to help you make informed decisions every step of the way.

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